• Hlaing has been appointed President of Myanmar following the first Parliamentary elections since he led the 2021 military coup.
• Hlaing’s election serves to legitimise his leadership and authorise more power over institutions like the Parliament.
• Newly introduced energy regulations and international agreements further help Hlaing consolidate power as he continues fighting domestic rebel groups.

Why is Hlaing HOT?

Answer: Hlaing HOT following the elections, giving him full control over domestic institutions.

Min Aung Hlaing has become the newly appointed President of Myanmar following the general elections held from December 2025 to January 2026. He has served as the de facto head of state since leading the military coup d’état in 2021 that ousted democratically elected Aung San Suu Kyi from power. Since the coup, the junta has continuously extended states of emergency for 4 years, preventing any formally held elections. Hlaing had explained the lack of elections by the numerous rebel groups that hold significant portions of territory in the country. The most recent estimates suggest that up to 79% of Myanmar territory is being fully or partially controlled by said groups. 

In August 2025, Hlaing announced the end of the state of emergency, followed by the first Parliamentary elections since the military coup. Spanning three phases, the elections would be held in 145 of the 330 townships throughout the country, with the excluded townships being deemed too unstable for election proceedings. The junta also banned criticism of the elections or the election procedures, as well as over 30,000 political opponents from competing, including members of the previously largest political party, the National League for Democracy. 

This drew global criticism from actors such as Japan, the UK, and the EU, accusing Hlaing of undemocratic practices. He had additionally invited numerous international observers to monitor the proceedings, but several rejected the invitation, further weakening the international acceptance of the election proceedings. The junta made an official response denying accusations of undemocratic practices, arguing that there were already enough observers monitoring the election to confirm its legitimacy.

Despite the international backlash, Hlaing managed to acquire significant domestic authority through the election results. Between the ¼ of Parliamentary seats constitutionally assigned to the military and the seats won by the junta’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party, Hlaing directly controls over ¾ of the available seats. This was later confirmed when lawmakers officially swore Hlaing in as the President in April. As the official head of state, Hlaing is able to justify his leadership of Myanmar and his representation of the nation during official state visits. Additionally, his command over Parliament also allows Hlaing to introduce legislation unchallenged, including the newly introduced gas regulations.

What is changing Hlaing’s heat level?

Answer: Hlaing’s energy regulation since becoming President heavily restricts the mobility of rural rebel groups, adding to his crackdown on domestic opposition.

With direct control of over ¾ of the Myanmar Parliament, Hlaing is not only able to pass new legislation unchallenged but is even able to make amendments to the Constitution. Although no plans to do so have been announced as of yet, he has already begun introducing new regulations with the aim of weakening the numerous rebel groups in the state.

There are up to 600 rebel groups of different sizes and structures fighting the junta in Myanmar, mostly located within the peripheral, lower-income territories. Although the groups had previously seen success in fighting the military and still control a majority of territory, group infighting has prevented major gains while the military has retaken several areas and launched discriminatory bombings in opposition hubs. Last Spring, Hlaing also introduced a new gas rationing system that substantially undermines the rebels and their ability to mobilise, setting a precedent for how he will use his recent electoral victory to target domestic opposition.

Since March 7th, the new law only allowed vehicles with even-numbered licence plates to drive on even-numbered days, with the reverse being true for cars with odd-numbered plates. Starting March 15th, the law was taken further with a mandatory QR barcode system that tracked and limited the amount of fuel every driver was allowed to buy.

These laws allow Hlaing’s government to have full control over traffic flows and road infrastructure in junta-controlled territory, which has been an issue since 2021 due to frequent domestic use of unregistered vehicles, adding to his ‘hot’ heat level. He explained this law through the Strait of Hormuz closing earlier this year, which heavily impacted Myanmar due to 95% of the country’s energy stemming from imports.

A majority of rebel group members use unregistered motorcycles, which are now unable to refuel and are effectively banned from any roads. The energy regulations have also particularly limited supplies in the rural areas where most of the groups are stationed. 

Hlaing’s heat level is prevented from blazing due to the harsh consequences faced by Myanmar’s general population. Citizens have reported waiting hours queuing at gas stations, some having to cross the Thai border for supplies, and farmers warn of domestic food shortages due to the laws. Nevertheless, he is able to pursue similar strategies in future legislation with his full control over the government, while continuing military operations.

What is driving Hlaing?

Answer: Hlaing is pushing for more control over domestic territory and wider international legitimacy as the President.

Since the 2021 coup d’état, Myanmar has been in a continuous state of civil war between the junta and domestic rebel groups. In less than five years, approximately 100,000 people have been killed, over 18.6 million citizens are in need of humanitarian aid, and the country’s economy has lost an estimated $93.9 billion. His recent electoral win gives Hlaing more opportunity for legislative strategies, such as energy regulations and a stricter conscription law, to target domestic opposition while continuing his military campaigns.

Hlaing has also struggled with a lack of international recognition as the legitimate Myanmar head of state. By holding the 2025 elections, he has a clear justification for his continued role in power despite the international condemnation for their undemocratic practices. Several world leaders had sent official congratulatory letters to Hlaing for his victory, acting as de facto recognition of his legitimate Presidency. Shortly after his April appointment, he also made two official state visits to the most influential players in Asia, India and China.

Hlaing managed to use said state visits to make multiple bilateral agreements, from security to infrastructure deals. Most notably, various energy agreements were made between Myanmar and China, while the gas rationing system is still in place.

Hlaing had invited multiple of his family’s business partners to the official state visit, who had been sighted in several Chinese EV manufacturing sites. Coincidentally, China is expected to provide even more EVs to Myanmar when 90% of the market is already made up of Chinese brands and dominated by Hlaing’s own children, who are the second- and third-largest importers of Chinese EVs domestically. This displays him using his newfound electoral victory to not only improve his international standing but also further benefit his and his family’s personal finances.

What does this mean for you?

Answer: Hlaing is looking to mimic Myanmar’s relationship with China with other states and use its geopolitical characteristics for financial benefit.

Myanmar is a resource-rich state, particularly in rare earths, and is located in a geopolitically strategic location due to its proximity to the Strait of Malacca. This is why several states, most notably China, continued having strong relationships with Hlaing’s government even after the 2021 military coup. Hlaing plans to mimic Myanmar’s relationship with China and integrate the state further with other Asian states, using the recent election result as evidence for his Presidential legitimacy and turning Myanmar into an economic powerhouse in Southeast Asia.

Notably, Hlaing traveled to Laos in July, which was the first time a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) welcomed the President on an official state visit since the 2021 military coup. ASEAN was among the IGOs most critical of his military government, despite some members like Thailand being more lenient towards the junta government. The IO was also among those refusing to send observers to Myanmar to monitor their elections. Despite this, Hlaing expressed his goal to “strengthen [Myanmar’s] role within the ASEAN community” during his visit.

Simultaneously, even states that have historically been critical of Hlaing and the military coup, like the U.S., have begun aligning themselves closer to Myanmar. This demonstrates that his plan to reconnect Myanmar with the international community is working with several states, as he sets out to redefine his portrayal from a military coup leader to a legitimate leader of a Southeast Asian country.