Wednesday (June 10th): Proxy wars don’t stop for pandemics & protests

Mevlut Cavusoglu

Name? Mevlut Cavusoglu

Westphalian identity? Turkish

Age? 52

Why is he in the news? Cavusoglu, as Turkish foreign minister, dismissed Egypt’s proposal for a ceasefire in Libya as an attempt to save General Haftar after he had lost greatly on the battlefield.

Why do we care? It seems as though Egypt is trying to take Russia’s place as #1 supporter of Haftar (since Russia left and let them). Rather than send in troops and supplies, President Sisi has decided to pursue a more diplomatic route through a proposed ceasefire and an elected leadership council for Libya (under UN supervision).

Why should you care? While the conflict in Libya is an internal issue, it has become a proxy war for major regional powers including Turkey, Russia, Egypt, the UAE as well as the EU and the U.S. Although Cavusoglu and Russia have generally been more vocal about their support, the UAE has largely been the political driver of the conflict as they are actively attempting to limit the spread of political Islam, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood.

Who else cares? Presumably, Libyan Prime Minister al-Sarraj who’s been largely backed by Turkey, the EU and the UN. al-Surraj has had multiple proposals imposed on him from all sides with often little to no consultation. Thus, Cavusoglu’s almost immediate dismissal of Egypt’s (largely one-sided) initiative aids al-Surraj in keeping some international (as well as regional) support behind him.

Any further comments? The main reason Turkey supports the al-Surraj administration is that Ankara recently signed a contentious maritime boundary agreement which would allow Turkey to claim parts of the eastern Mediterranean. Obviously, some member states of the EU have issues with this arrangement; primarily Greece and Cyprus as they regard the very same parts of the Mediterranean as their own. Given the bloc’s support for the two countries, the EU has become more entangled in the Libyan conflict; a bit difficult considering some of its own major players support opposite sides…