Name? Mohammed bin Salman
Westphalian identity? Saudi
Age? 34
Why is he in the news? Two years ago, Mohammed bin Salman gave an interview in which he said that Saudi Arabia would definitely develop nuclear weapons if Iran developed them first. Two months later, US President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. Now, satellite images show that Saudi Arabia is close to finishing nuclear reactors.
Why do we care? While nuclear reactors are only used to produce energy, the fact that Saudi Arabia is involved did spark our interest. A country rich in oil with MBS’ 2030 vision focused on developing renewable energies does not need nuclear power. Since renewables are only ⅕ of the price of nuclear, the only reasonable explanation for pursuing it is the development of nuclear bombs. In retrospect, it makes sense that MBS fulfills his two-year-old statement given that Iran vowed to further develop its own program after Trump withdrew.
Why should you care? Do not worry! If you are like us, interpreters of the deterrence theory, you have nothing to worry about other than increased stability. In case you reject the deterrence theory, then you have another nuclear power to worry about; either way, you should care.
Who else cares? Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels. Remember September of 2019 when Iranian militias sent 18 drones and attacked two major oil sights in Saudi Arabia? Yes? Both had air defence systems. If Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels can attack oil sites, they can attack nuclear sites as well; leading to bigger and longer-lasting damage rather than just a crack in MBS’ ego.
Any further comments? We can witness similar developments in the UAE. However, there is the small difference that MBZ signed enhanced non-proliferation protocols and even secured a coveted 123 Agreement with the US sharing know-how and materials. As stated before, we do not mind Saudi Arabia developing nuclear weapons, as long as it happens within the international framework.
