Wednesday (Feb. 12): Russian Balance

Sergey Lavrov

Name? Sergey Lavrov

Westphalian identity? Russian

Age? 69

Why is he in the news? The Russian Foreign Minister is proposing an updated Sotschi Agreement to Turkey and Syria

Why do we care? Already in 2018 did Putin negotiate the Sochi Agreement between Turkey and Syria establishing Russia as the peacekeeper in the country.

Why should you care? Turkey and Syrian are on the brink of war. The Russian government is currently the only foreign actor they both respect and fear. Oh, and to clarify: war tends to be bad.

Who else cares? The 3 million people trapped in Idlib. Sometimes it is easy to forget that the power game of politics has real-life implications for real people. The refugees inside the city are trying to escape Assad’s troops advancing but cannot enter Turkey which has closed its borders for Syrian Refugees. Oh, there are also Kurdish fighters trapped inside the city. Oh, and let’s not forget the fighters of regional rebel groups, including ISIS remnants, who also appear to be inside of the city. Sounds like a happy fun place right now, huh?

Any further comments? With Trump withdrawing US forces from Syria he officially handed the conflict over to Putin and with this losing influence in the region. Putin’s task is to balance the interest of both of his allies while not losing either one of them. Remember that Turkey and Syria are both purchasing weapons from Russia and that it should remain that way; Putin’s Dachas are not going to buy themselves! Specifically, the Russian S-400 air defence systems in Turkey are of vital interest to the Kremlin. It might not seem like it but Turkey is a Nato member and with the S-400s Putin is successfully driving a wedge between the US and Turkey. This has already led to Trump cancelling F-35 deliveries to Ankara.

Joshua Dario Hasenstab

General Coordinator