Uganda is considered one of the most vulnerable countries to the climate crisis, despite contributing minimally to the global greenhouse gas emissions. Uganda’s ranking based on 2023 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) – the 14th most vulnerable country globally and 163rd in climate readiness – reflects the country’s limited capacity to adapt. Climate change is already altering Uganda’s temperature: rising by around 1.3 degrees Celsius over the last 50 years and increasing erratic rainfall. In particular, the historically bimodal rainfall pattern has been progressively becoming less predictable, upsetting agricultural cycles and decreasing the amount of available water. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) frequently indicate severe dryness, with seasonal droughts now tending to be more severe, especially in areas that rely on rain-fed agriculture.
Wetlands
Wetlands are among the most important natural resources in Uganda. They store water and carbon, regulate floods and protect biodiversity. However, wetland coverage in Uganda decreased from 15.6% of its land area in 1994 to 13% in 2022, primarily because of agricultural encroachment, industrial development and sand mining. According to the World Bank, 40% of Uganda’s wetlands have been destroyed since 1994, mostly due to urbanisation, poor environmental governance and conversion to agricultural land. Water catchment areas, swamps and green spaces have been reclaimed for construction projects without efficient enforcement of environmental regulations.
There are also concerns over wetland destruction, water pollution and habitat fragmentation from oil and gas developments around Lake Albert, including the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Given that wetlands are crucial for flood control and water quality, their loss increases susceptibility to extreme weather events and lowers the resilience of ecosystems. Biodiversity is also under threat as protected ecosystems become increasingly fragmented, weakening tourism and the ecosystem services on which livelihoods depend. Ultimately, as more than 80% of Uganda’s population directly depend on natural resources for their livelihoods, the continuation of wetland degradation poses a threat to socio-economic development and environmental sustainability.
Deforestation
Deforestation is recognised by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) as one of the key causes of environmental degradation and climate vulnerability in the country. Forest cover reduced drastically, falling from 24% of the total land in 1990 to 13.3% in 2022, with the country losing almost half of its forests in three decades. The main causes are charcoal production, high demand for firewood, urbanisation, agricultural development and illegal logging on forest reserves. A lot of forest loss is also driven by dependence on biomass energy. More than 90% of Ugandan households cook with firewood or charcoal, with some 66% of the firewood being unsustainably sourced. This pressure is compounded by demographic growth, with the population projected to increase from approximately 46 million in 2024 to nearly 100 million by 2050, roughly doubling. In turn, it further pushes demand for land, timber and exerts pressure on energy resources.
Forests are important carbon sinks – systems that absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than they release, reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They are also essential for regulating rainfall, protecting soil and biodiversity. Their loss adds to land degradation that already affects more than 40% of Uganda’s land area, primarily through soil erosion, overgrazing and unsustainable farming practices. Decreasing forest cover also reduces resilience to climate change, as it increases the risk of droughts, floods, and landslides. Although recent government reports indicate a slight recovery in forest cover from 10.7% in 2010-2011 to 13.3% in 2021-2022, the progress is not substantial enough considering the scale of historical losses. With weak enforcement, limited funding and institutional constraints, this remains a challenge for conservation, climate mitigation, and well-being of thousands.
Extreme Weather Events
Furthermore, landslides and floods are becoming more brutal and severe. Heavy rainfall, droughts, floods and other climate hazards affect an average of 200,000 Ugandans annually. Floods in particular take place every other year and create approximately $140 million in average economic losses per year.
Seasonal rivers and mountainous regions near the River Nile are most vulnerable to these events, damaging homes, roads and agricultural land which the Ugandans depend on massively. Agriculture contributes approximately 24% of the country’s GDP and employs around 70% of the population, while most farming is rain-fed. Increasing temperatures and unpredictable rains increase crop failures, animal losses, food insecurity and rural poverty. According to Afrobarometer surveys, the vast majority of Ugandans who are aware of climate change think that living conditions are getting worse. Some 80% of them support immediate government action, even if it comes with financial costs, while 76% think that high-income countries should fund Uganda’s efforts to adapt to climate change.
Finally, Uganda’s goal to grow its economy from about $50 billion US dollars in 2023 to $500 billion by 2040 under its Ten-Fold Growth Strategy is threatened by environmental deterioration and climatic shocks. Contrary to the set objective, unless adaptation measures are sufficiently put in place, climate change could cause Uganda’s GDP to drop by as much as 5.6% by 2050.
These environmental challenges are central to Nakate’s climate justice activism. She believes they pose a direct threat to the future of Uganda in particular and other African countries in general. The widespread damage of wetlands, deforestation and extreme weather events all compromise economic opportunities, health, and the livelihoods of millions of people.
IE x RAIA Summer Research Programme: Vanessa Nakate Profile
This article is an excerpt from a report on Vanessa Nakate produced as part of a RAIA research programme on climate leaders. For a full picture of Nakate’s climate leadership, including the sources, read the full report. This project was fully financed by IE University’s School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs and School of Science and Technology.
Authors: Maïa Ines Mallet De Vandègre, Trixie Claudette Nebres & Lucia Piederiet
Editor: Ksenia Kumanina
Project Lead: Dario Hasenstab
