CC BY 2.0 Palácio do Planalto Adapted
Name? Lula da Silva
Westphalian identity? Brazilian
Age? 80
Why is he in the news? President Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential runoff yesterday against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with 51.79% of the vote. He overturned a first-round deficit, becoming the first candidate since direct elections returned in 1989 to win a runoff after finishing second. Despite several polls having Bolsonaro ahead, Lula secured a record fourth term.
Why do we care? Lula’s win interrupts a run of right-wing election victories across Latin America, keeping Brazil and Mexico, the two largest economies in the region, under labour governments. Lula won, however, by a slim margin and starting in 2027 he will deal with a Congress in which the Liberal Party gained the most seats since 1988, with 121/513. With no clear majority in Congress, Lula will have to negotiate policy with centrist parties to advance his agenda.
Why should you care? The EU-Mercosur trade deal, which took provisional effect in May, is removing tariffs on most goods between the two blocs, including South American farm products such as beef, sugar, and soy. Lula negotiated the finalisation of the deal, whereas Bolsonaro wanted more freedom to negotiate separate bilateral agreements. The President will likely pursue a similar multilateral approach in search of economic and political stability.
Who else cares? The Bolsonaro family was famously courting the White House in the lead-up to the general elections earlier this month. Though President Donald Trump did not officially endorse any candidate, Lula’s diplomats faced increasing difficulties communicating with American counterparts, and President Trump praised Flavio Bolsonaro’s first-round win. Lula’s win means Brazil will not be joining Trump’s Shield of the Americas, leaving the president facing a leader whose relations with Washington have declined over tariffs and pressure on Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution.
Any further comments? The president guides Brazil’s foreign policy, but treaties and trade pacts need congressional approval, which will become increasingly harder to get with a strengthened right wing.