Name? Michelle Bolsonaro
Westphalian identity? Brazilian
Age? 44
Why is she in the news? Days before Brazil’s 4 October election, Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, leads the polls for one of the Federal District’s two Senate seats in Brasília, with 27%. She is also stepmother of Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair’s son and the far-right senator competing against Lula da Silva, the current president. In June she accused Flavio of humiliating her and quit as head of the Liberal Party’s women’s wing, but later agreed to campaign for him.
Why do we care? With Lula leading Flavio by just two points in the latest runoff poll, the Liberal Party cannot afford mixed signals. In Lula’s 2022 win, women’s votes were among the most relevant factors, and a July poll had him 18 points ahead of Flavio among women. Michelle Bolsonaro’s women’s wing recruited more than 72,000 members, and the party added over twice as many women as Lula’s Workers’ Party between March 2023 and July 2024, so her support is Flavio’s best option for gaining voters in a demographic where Lula is currently leading.
Why should you care? Lula’s government has a 50% disapproval rating against 43% approval. If Brazil, Latin America’s biggest country, swings right, Mexico would be the last large left-led government in the region. That would reshape regional security and cooperation.
Who else cares? U.S. President Donald Trump has not formally endorsed the Bolsonaro family, but received Falvio Bolsonaro in the Oval Office in May and has imposed tariffs on Brazil over the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, his ally. Flavio has pledged to join the US-led ‘Shield of the Americas’, a regional security initiative, if elected.
Any further comments? A Senate win would give Michelle Bolsonaro a platform for 2030, but the Bolsonaro name that built her base also ties her to a movement that expects women to lead beneath its men.