Friday (February 25th): Tsai’s fears for Taiwan

Tsai
Tsai Ing-wen

Name? Tsai Ing-wen

Westphalian identity? Taiwanese

Age? 65

Why is she in the news? President Tsai Ing-wen ordered Taiwan’s military to boost its defences, surveillance and early warning systems as well as strengthen its already advanced response capabilities to cognitive warfare. While an impending attack on Taiwan by China is unlikely, Tsai’s actions respond to the Taiwanese people who have watched their fears play out in Ukraine this week.

Why do we care? Because this moment is decisive not only for foreign policy in Eastern Europe, but also in Eastern Asia. Should Biden and the US be regarded as indecisive or indifferent to its European allies’ concerns about Russia, why should Macron, Scholz or Johnson not react similarly to Biden’s concerns about China in the Indo-Pacific? President Tsai is watching closely how the international community responds to Ukraine.

Why should you care?  If this week has shown us anything, it’s emphasised that we cannot assume autocratic leaders—aka Putin—will always make decisions rationally. As irrational as it may seem to us to launch an invasion into another sovereign state despite the threat of major sanctions, such actions can clearly be justified by certain individuals’ perspectives. You should care 9/10 about the potential repercussions of the Ukraine crisis around the world. 

Who else cares? Chinese President Xi Jinping has quite quickly found himself in a difficult position as he attempts to balance close ties with Moscow and a working relationship with the EU. Although China never recognized Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, Putin’s use of “cultural and historical affinities” with Ukraine are similar to Xi’s stance on Taiwan and President Tsai.

Any further comments? President Tsai would feel more at ease if she felt Taiwan would have the full support of US allies in the Indo-Pacific (the Quad). While Japan and Australia have been quick to condemn Putin’s actions in Ukraine, adding to the various sanctions by the West, India has remained largely neutral on the international stage…