Friday (April 2nd): Ukraine’s worries about Russia

Volodymyr Zelensky

Name? Volodymyr Zelensky

Westphalian identity? Ukrainian

Age? 43

Why is he in the news? President of the Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky is currently in hot waters over the situation at Ukraine’s border with Russia. Seven years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and separatist fighting in Eastern Ukraine, tensions are rising again. In the past few weeks, the 2018 ceasefire was broken hundreds of times and it appears that Russia has moved 4000 soldiers to the border

Why do we care? The peace talks between Zelensky and Putin have stagnated since the ceasefire between the Ukraine government and the separatists allied with Russia. It seems like Putin is trying to mount pressure on Zelensky, who called it a “muscle flex” to turn the negotiations in Putin’s favour.

Why should you care? Since the conflict first erupted, 14 000 people have died. If that is not enough, Zelensky responded by moving troops to the region himself and planning military exercises. If that was not enough, Gen. Wolters, the head of U.S. European Command, raised the American military’s watch level for Ukraine for the second time in several days. These increasing tensions score a 4/10 on our how much you should care scale

Who else cares? Vladimir Putin. His and Russia’s popularity in Ukraine has plummeted since the annexation of Crimea. This must be hard given that Ukraine has always been part of Russia’s sphere of influence and is an essential part of Putin’s dream of a “Russian World.” In particular, the loss of religion in 2019 as a soft power tool with the creation of an independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine hurt Russia’s influence.

Any further comments? Should we worry about a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine anytime soon? Most analysts say no, but how many of them predicted the events of 2014? Maybe Putin is only abusing Biden’s weak spot of Ukraine (looking at you Hunter) because Zelensky is still waiting for that first call…?

Joshua Dario Hasenstab

General Coordinator